Air freight Outlook
- Air freight demand from China to the US and EU remains weak, with no signs of recovery in eCommerce volumes. As a result, scheduled freighter flights continue to be cancelled. In contrast, demand out of Southeast Asia—particularly from Thailand and Vietnam—is starting to pick up due to the upcoming tariff deadline in July.
- The ongoing crisis in the Middle East may affect routes between Asia and Europe. Airlines are expected to reduce flight frequencies in response to potential disruptions in capacity and routing.
Ocean Freight Outlook
- Drewry reports that blank sailings on major East-West routes are dropping, with cancellations expected to fall by 17% in June and a sharp 59% in July. Over the next five weeks, less than 60 of 720 planned sailings will be cancelled.
- On the Transpacific route, capacity availability is increasing. Space on the US West Coast route grew 16% in June and is set to grow another 8% in July, as carriers bring back previously suspended sailings to meet early shipping demand and take advantage of strong freight rates.
With ongoing uncertainty around tariff policies and shifting capacity deployment, the container shipping industry is navigating a complex web of geopolitical and economic forces that will shape costs moving forward.
Regional Outlook
- Cargo expansion is underway at Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) Airport; while long-term capacity will improve, July may see reduced ramp access and handling efficiency, and belly-hold space remains limited
- The Port of Manzanillo in Mexico continues to face severe congestion and delays due to a mid-May strike, with ripple effects expected to persist for several weeks
- The Finnish Aviation Union (IAU) has issued a third 4-hour strike notice for July 7, affecting ground operations at airports; earlier 4-hour stoppages are also planned for July 2 and 4 as labor negotiations continue
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Intra-Asia traffic is holding strong, especially on routes linking China with Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore. Capacity on these lanes is tight, and we’re seeing higher rates compared to the same period last year.
VP, Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco Express Group