Happening Now
Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are disrupting both global aviation and maritime shipping networks. Airspace restrictions, airport disruptions, and heightened security risks across several countries are affecting airline operations and increasing uncertainty for ocean carriers operating near key maritime corridors. The situation may create ripple effects across global air and ocean freight networks beyond the immediate conflict region.
As of March 5, 2026 (Ocean Update)
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are increasing uncertainty across global shipping networks. Ocean carriers may introduce additional surcharges as operating risks and fuel costs rise, potentially affecting multiple trade lanes beyond the immediate conflict region.
Potential Carrier Surcharges
Carriers may implement several cost adjustments in response to geopolitical disruptions:
- BAF (Bunker Adjustment Factor): Applied when fuel prices increase due to rising oil markets.
- WRS (War Risk Surcharge): Introduced when vessels transit near conflict-affected regions.
- PCS (Port Congestion Surcharge): May occur if vessel rerouting leads to congestion at alternative ports.
The situation is particularly sensitive around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil trade passes. Any disruption in the region could rapidly increase bunker fuel costs and impact ocean freight operating expenses.
Freight Rate Inflation Across Trade Lanes
Freight rate pressure may also emerge across broader trade lanes as carriers adjust capacity and costs. For example, Wan Hai Lines has announced a Rate Restoration of USD 50 per TEU effective 16 March across all Intra-Asia services. Similar adjustments may follow on other corridors as carriers respond to fuel costs, operational risks, and schedule disruptions.
Short-Term Outlook (High Risk)
In the near term, shippers may experience:
- Rising shipping insurance premiums
- Limited vessel availability on some services
- Lower schedule reliability due to rerouting
- Freight rate increases across multiple trade lanes
Medium-Term Outlook (Moderate Risk)
Conditions may stabilize if:
- Security escorts allow safer Red Sea transits
- Some carriers partially return to Suez Canal routing
- New vessel deliveries add capacity to the global fleet
Dimerco’s Recommended Actions for Shippers
- Book cargo earlier during peak shipping periods
- Build additional transit-time buffers into supply chain planning
- Diversify routing options where feasible
- Monitor bunker fuel surcharges and carrier rate adjustments
- Secure longer-term freight contracts where possible
- Track cargo movement in real time and verify routing with service providers
- Prepare contingency plans for sudden diversions, delays, or service suspension
- Review and manage cargo insurance coverage for shipments transiting conflict zones
As of March 2, 2026 (Air Update)
More than 3,400 flights have already been cancelled or diverted globally, with airlines worldwide adjusting schedules to maintain safe operations. Several key international carriers have suspended or adjusted services, including:
- Emirates
- Qatar Airways
- Etihad Airways
- Lufthansa
- Turkish Airlines
- Air India and other Asian carriers
Potential Airline Surcharges and Delays
Airlines are rerouting flights to avoid affected airspace, resulting in longer flight paths and approximately 1–3 hours of additional transit time on Asia–Europe lanes. These extended routings increase fuel requirements and may reduce available cargo payload capacity on long-haul aircraft.
Industry estimates indicate that the ongoing airspace restrictions has temporarily removed approximately 13% of effective global air cargo capacity.
Jet Fuel Costs: Rising geopolitical tensions may affect global oil markets, potentially driving up jet fuel prices and leading to higher fuel surcharges.
War Risk Surcharges: Airlines are also introducing or reviewing the introduction of war risk surcharges applicable to shipments routed through or near affected regions.
Industry observers warn that aircraft repositioning challenges and crew displacement may continue to affect global schedules beyond the Middle East.
The disruption represents a network-wide capacity constraint, rather than isolated flight delays.
What Shippers Should Expect
- Tightening Asia–Europe airfreight capacity
- Longer transit times due to rerouting
- Increased schedule variability
- Upward pressure on Europe-bound airfreight rates
- Even shipments not routing through the Middle East may experience delays as aircraft and crews fall out of position globally.
Dimerco’s Response
To maintain supply chain continuity, Dimerco has activated contingency planning across its global network, including:
- Air–Air relay solutions through diversified global gateways, supported by Dimerco’s strong airline partnerships across Asia
- China–Europe Rail options for suitable cargo profiles
- Leveraging the European gateway with trucking distribution across regional markets
- Dedicated charter project solutions for urgent or high-volume shipments
- Flexible multimodal routing aligned with real-time capacity availability
Recommended actions for customers shipping between Asia and Europe
- Plan shipments earlier and secure space in advance
- Maintain routing flexibility
- Coordinate closely with Dimerco teams on shipment planning
For tailored contingency planning and capacity solutions, please contact Dimerco at your earliest convenience.