Air Outlook
- Demand was weak around Chinese New Year but is slowly picking up in March, especially for electronics, AI servers, and semiconductor cargo.
- The temporary 10% global tariff may encourage some US-bound shipments to move back to China instead of Southeast Asia.
- If tariffs become more uniform across countries, Intra-Asia cargo flows could slow compared to last year.
Ocean Freight Outlook
- Ocean demand remains soft, and rates continue to stay under pressure despite carriers canceling many sailings.
- More new vessels entering the market and some services returning via the Suez Canal are adding extra capacity.
- Carriers are likely to continue managing capacity, but it is uncertain whether this will be enough to stop further rate decline.
The post–Lunar New Year rush is unlikely to significantly change shipping dynamics. With weak consumer sentiment and a soft demand outlook, capacity control is once again in focus. Given the recent financial pressure on carriers, the delivery of new vessels, and the gradual return of some Suez Canal transits, we expect steamship lines to step up efforts to manage capacity. However, it remains uncertain whether these measures will be sufficient to reverse the current soft rate trend.
Trade Compliance
- Some IEEPA tariffs were officially stopped on February 24, 2026, but the refund process is still unclear and may take time.
- A temporary Section 122 import duty is expected, but full details are still pending from the US government.
- Other tariff programs (Sections 301, 232, 122, 338) remain active risks, and companies should continue close monitoring and proper documentation.
Although certain IEEPA tariffs have been ruled unlawful, importers and shippers must continue maintaining complete and accurate supply chain documentation, exercise heightened due diligence, and prepare for potential implementation of new tariff measures. Regulatory scrutiny, enforcement actions, and import inspections remain elevated.
Regional Outlook
- Middle East Airspace Disruptions Impact Asia–Europe Capacity – Escalating Middle East tensions have led to widespread airspace closures and airport disruptions, significantly impacting global aviation. Countries including Iran, Iraq, Israel, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE have imposed partial or full flight restrictions. Over 3,400 flights have been cancelled or diverted, with airlines adjusting schedules to ensure safety. Key carriers affected include Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad Airways, Lufthansa, Turkish Airlines, and Air India. (Read the full story here)
- Northeast Asia: Air capacity is tight after the holiday rebound, especially for semiconductor and electronics shipments. Ocean demand remains soft.
- Southeast Asia, India & Australia: Ramadan and Idul Fitri may slow operations. Indonesia and Thailand face tighter air space, while India sees stronger exports before its fiscal year-end.
- North America & Europe: US ocean demand remains weak, while some air lanes are tight for aerospace and high-tech cargo. Europe continues to face weather and port congestion disruptions.
- Mexico: Cargo delays are likely to continue in the short term due to road blockages, security issues, and congestion at key Pacific ports, which may affect delivery timelines and increase the risk of additional charges.
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Tariff uncertainty is likely to reshape the Intra-Asia market. Since 2025, regional volumes have been supported by raw material movements linked to China+1 manufacturing strategies, particularly in Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia. If tariff treatment becomes uniform across countries, shippers may shift back to exporting directly from China instead of routing materials through Southeast Asia. This could lead to softer Intra-Asia traffic compared with 2025.
VP, Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco Express Group