Global Outlook
- Global manufacturing picked up slightly in June, with production rising at the fastest pace in three months. This was mainly due to US companies rushing orders before the new tariffs took effect on July 9. However, overall growth is still slower than before the pandemic, and businesses remain cautious because of ongoing trade tensions and global uncertainties.
- Retail sales in the US fell in June for the first time since February, with most categories down except digital products. Shoppers are cautious amid tariff concerns and unclear policies. Many companies have already frontloaded inventories, which may dampen export demand. While the economy stays stable and new policies may help, trade uncertainty continues to affect consumer behavior and global shipping for the rest of 2025.
Ocean Freight Outlook
- Container shipping remains volatile due to shifting demand and US tariffs; carriers increased blank sailings on Asia to US routes to manage excess capacity.
- Many shippers frontloaded ahead of the August 12 tariff deadline, weakening July volumes; carriers will cut Asia to US capacity by 6.2% in August.
In the US, unclear tariff policies are causing unpredictable shipping and sourcing patterns. Although a temporary tariff pause has helped in the short term, higher tariffs are expected in August. This is leading to rushed shipments now but may result in reduced trade and higher costs later. With conflict risks, tariff uncertainty, and vessel supply imbalances, the ocean freight market is likely to stay unstable. Shippers should stay flexible and prepare for continued disruptions.
Regional Outlook
- Malaysia: Port Klang remains congested, with vessel waiting times reaching up to 70 hours. Some carriers may choose to skip the port entirely.
- Thailand: Port congestion and container shortages at Laem Chabang have improved, easing some of the earlier operational challenges.
- Australia: Growing interest from companies expanding into the Australian market is also driving up cargo demand.
- India: With the ongoing monsoon season in several parts of India, shrink wrapping is recommended to protect cargo from potential water damage.
- LAX: Perishable goods such as grapes and peaches are occupying much of the available capacity to Asia. Several carriers have rerouted flights to Seattle to support cherry exports.
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VP, Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco Express Group