Global Outlook
- Asia manufacturing expands unevenly, with multiple markets showing firm but cautious production momentum.
- Tariff environment calmer: Easing of China’s IEEPA Fentanyl tariff (20%→10%) and suspension of USTR 301 Port Fees created relief, but no new shipping surge emerged.
- Inventory restraint persists: Retailers continue to manage stock conservatively, pointing to a gradual rather than aggressive restocking ahead of early 2026.
Air Outlook
- Transpacific demand remains strong, fueled by eCommerce after Black Friday and Thanksgiving, extending into early December.
- Southeast Asia drives volumes into the US, filling hubs such as TPE, HKG, ICN, NRT, and SIN.
- China–Mexico demand surges as shippers move cargo early before potential tariff actions.
- 2026 BSA discussions begin, with airlines signaling similar rate levels to 2025, despite expectations of a softer market.
Ocean Freight Outlook
- Tariff easing fails to spark a rebound: Despite lower China tariffs and paused USTR 301 Port Fees, importers did not front-load again, as earlier surges had already filled inventories.
- US retail restocking remains cautious, with imports slowing from 1.81M TEUs in July to 1.6M TEUs in October.
- 2026 outlook is still uncertain, hinging on inventory recovery and carrier decisions on whether to resume the Suez Canal route.
If carriers return to the Suez route, we could see rates ease as additional capacity comes back into the market. Conversely, if routing via the Cape continues, the longer transit times may eventually lead to equipment shortages on the land side. In either situation, whether capacity becomes too abundant or too restricted, the industry faces a risk of instability.
Regional Outlook
- Northeast Asia – Air demand to the US/EU stays high with tightening capacity and rising rates, while ocean markets remain soft except on Southeast Asia lanes where China-driven disruptions are pushing up costs.
- Southeast Asia – Typhoons caused 1–3-week vessel delays and increased port omissions across the region.
- India – Winter fog and hub congestion add pressure to already tight air capacity with limited freighters and belly space.
- Europe – Air demand softens, while Asia–Europe carriers push sharp FAK increases that could nearly double Mediterranean rates.
- North America – Air and ocean capacity to Asia remains tight, driven by high-tech exports and continued blank sailings.
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Intra-Asia lanes continue to be active, especially between China and Southeast Aisa as raw materials move around the region. For 2026 BSA talks, airlines are indicating that 2026 rates will likely stay close to this year, even though many expect a softer market next year.
VP, Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco Express Group