Global Outlook
Global manufacturing closed 2025 on a softer footing, with the Global Manufacturing PMI at around 50.5, signaling only marginal expansion. New orders remain weak, suggesting cautious demand and restrained business confidence heading into 2026.
Across Asia Pacific, freight markets are being shaped by pre–Chinese New Year front-loading, while visibility beyond the holiday remains limited. At the same time, trade compliance is moving higher on the risk agenda as enforcement tightens.
Air Outlook
Demand from Asia to the US and Europe is easing slightly as February begins, with only a modest pre-Chinese New Year uplift expected. Softer e-commerce volumes since January are likely to extend into February, keeping spot rates stable or under mild downward pressure.
Intra-Asia demand remains resilient compared to last year, though below the Q4 peak. With Chinese New Year approaching, space is tightening, particularly on China to Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, India, and Thailand lanes.
Ocean Freight Outlook
Ocean carriers have largely maintained a rate floor on the Transpacific Eastbound Lane through GRIs and capacity control. However, this reflects disciplined capacity management rather than strong cargo demand. Recent attempts to push rates higher since January have mostly failed, and volumes have yet to show a clear pre-holiday surge.
Blank sailings remain relatively low overall, but nearly half are concentrated on the Transpacific Eastbound, signaling cautious demand expectations from carriers.
With more new vessels entering the market in 2026, carriers will need to stay disciplined on capacity. Without it, oversupply could quickly trigger another rate war.
Trade Compliance Watch
Section 232 tariffs on certain semiconductor products, expanded filing requirements, and CBP’s move to mandatory electronic refunds from February 6, 2026, are raising the compliance bar for importers. Accurate classification, sequencing, and documentation are becoming just as critical as freight execution.
If 2025 was about tariff uncertainty, 2026 is shaping up to be about enforcement risk. Shipping today isn’t just about moving cargo, it’s about staying disciplined on compliance and documentation.
Regional Outlook
- Northeast Asia – Pre-CNY front-loading supports short-term demand; post-holiday slowdown expected
- Southeast Asia – Tight capacity and congestion ahead of CNY; operational pressure easing after the holiday
- India – Air demand normalizes post-peak with improved weather, though airspace constraints persist
- North America – Front-loading tightens space pre-CNY; winter weather increases delay risks
- Europe – Weather disruption, labor actions, and EU ETS costs weigh on reliability and costs
- Mexico – Shipments slow amid new tariffs and stricter documentation requirements.
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While demand into the US and Europe is moderating, Intra-Asia flows remain active. As we move closer to Chinese New Year, space tightness on key regional lanes is becoming more visible, especially for high-tech and time-sensitive cargo.
VP, Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco Express Group