Global Outlook
- Manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.5 in November, with slower output/new orders and employment slipping back into contraction.
- The 2026 outlook is cautiously optimistic but volatile, while high-tech, AI, and e-commerce continue to drive strong Asia-Pacific airfreight to North America and Europe.
- Asia-Pac overview signals uneven strength: Northeast Asia air remains strong on AI/semiconductors; Southeast Asia tightens ahead of CNY; Europe faces strike-driven disruption; North America softens briefly post-holiday, then tightens pre-LNY; India faces winter fog risks.
Air Outlook
- Southeast Asia congestion persists; terminal shifts underway: From Jan 2026, CK shifts operations to TG terminal at BKK to improve handling efficiency.
- Capacity constrained; transit hubs congested: Growing SEA and Taiwan exports to the US, with belly capacity stuck near 2025 levels due to delivery delays, continue to strain Intra-Asia capacity and crowd HKG, TPE, SIN, ICN, and NRT.
- BSA renewal season supports higher Intra-Asia pricing, with average BSA rates expected to increase by ~10-20%
Ocean Freight Outlook
- Capacity growth continues, but unevenly across trades: Global fleet grew 7.3% YoY to 33.2M TEUs; additions skewed to Middle East–Indian Subcontinent / Asia–Africa / Asia–Europe, while Transpacific capacity declined 2.9%.
- Shippers remain cautious despite tariff truce: Market consensus expects a muted rebound; uncertainty remains around a Red Sea return, with some networks still planning South Africa routings.
Until trade activity clearly recovers, any early return to the Red Sea could add excess capacity and further disrupt an already fragile market in 2026.
- Northeast Asia – Taiwan air stays strong on AI exports (+56% YoY in Nov 2025); tight capacity and rising rates to the US; Intra-Asia lanes remain active.
- Southeast Asia – Pre-Chinese New Year demand is tightening air and ocean capacity, with export backlogs, holiday disruptions, and e-commerce volumes increasing booking pressure across key gateways.
- India – Airfreight eases after peak season, though winter fog may disrupt schedules. Ocean freight rates remain broadly stable, with shippers advised to allow buffer time for inland transport delays.
- North America – Airfreight softens post-holiday before tightening ahead of Lunar New Year, pushing rates higher. Ocean freight demand remains weak, with limited capacity discipline keeping rates under pressure.
- Europe – Strike-related disruptions across the UK/Spain/Italy/Portugal may reduce air capacity and reliability.
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By the end of 2025, several key Intra-Asia lanes, across both air and ocean freight, have reached historical highs, exceeding even pandemic-period levels. This trend has strengthened carriers’ confidence in a robust market outlook for 2026.
VP, Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco Express Group