Global Outlook
- Global manufacturing PMI slightly dipped to 50.8, signaling slower expansion after months of tariff-driven activity.
- Financial and tech sectors continue to drive limited growth, while broader demand remains soft.
- Following the US–China tariff truce extension and a 10% tariff reduction, the front-loading momentum that boosted earlier months may ease.
- Shippers remain watchful of inventory cycles as tariff relief may revive exports in late Q4.
Air Outlook
- Transpacific demand remains strong through mid-November, supported by AI servers, consumer electronics, and aluminum coil exports.
- Tariff pause fuels front-loading: The temporary suspension of new tariffs prompted shippers to expedite air cargo before year-end.
- Peak tapering after mid-November: Demand expected to normalize as the tariff-driven push and holiday shipments ease.
Ocean Freight Outlook
- Carriers withdrew ~7% of sailings on key East–West routes, stabilizing rates.
- The Oct 15 GRI shows a potential rebound, but sustainability depends on tariff & demand.
- Pause on USTR 301 Port Charges and China’s reciprocal fees provides short-term relief for carriers and shippers.
- Market sentiment steadier: With lower tariff tensions and paused surcharges, trade flows are expected to stabilize, though importers remain cautious until inventory restocking begins in early 2026.
Whether this rebound will hold depends on how tariff developments, geopolitical risks, and carriers’ ability to maintain disciplined capacity evolve in the coming weeks. Until the dust settles, most importers are adopting observer mode, having already increased shipment volumes earlier this year to stock up on inventory. The remainder of the year is expected to be slow, with chance of inventory replenishment in early 2026. However, the recent negotiations held in South Korea may prompt Q4 peak season.
Regional Outlook
- Northeast Asia: AI and e-commerce exports remain strong; Taiwan and South Korea sustain high air demand as tariff uncertainties ease.
- Southeast Asia & India: Air freight rates fluctuate due to festive exports and capacity limits; India–China direct flights expected to improve routing in November.
- Australia: Freight from Asia remains steady but faces reliability challenges from port congestion and equipment shortages.
- North America: Milder peak season as tariff relief and paused port charges ease pressure; carriers adjusting to a steadier demand pattern.
- Mexico: Mexico faces weather-related delays and inland flooding.
- Europe: Ransomware attack and Red Sea tensions disrupt logistics; some service expansions via Suez to boost resilience.
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The surge in air export demand is expected to continue until mid-November, driven by the ongoing Transpacific peak season, a shortage of aluminum coils in the US, and the recent launch of high-tech consumer electronics. Continuous monitoring of ocean freight capacity and tariff negotiations between China and the US is recommended, as both will influence market trends from late November through year-end.
VP, Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco Express Group