Global Outlook
- Global manufacturing showed signs of resilience in August, with the global PMI rising to 52.9, its highest level in 14 months. Output and new orders are back in expansion, but business confidence remains weak due to tariffs, trade barriers, and geopolitical uncertainty. Protectionist measures, particularly from the US, continue to reshape sourcing strategies and disrupt supply chains.
Air Outlook
- The September to November peak season is now underway. Capacity remains limited after the China–Europe Railway disruption and flight cancellations caused by Typhoon Ragasa, with Hong Kong facing backlogs that may last until mid-October. Demand is growing in Southeast Asia, where exports of AI, semiconductors, and other high-tech products from Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore are putting pressure on major hubs such as Singapore, Taipei, Hong Kong, and Incheon. Shippers are advised to book space one to two weeks in advance.
Ocean Freight Outlook
- Ocean freight markets continue to face challenges. Despite carriers increasing blank sailings after Golden Week and reshuffling service routes, spot rates are still falling. Prices from Shanghai to North Europe have dropped 45 percent in just ten weeks, and recent rate increases on Trans-Pacific routes have not lasted. With the global vessel orderbook now equal to nearly 30 percent of the fleet pipeline, or about 10 million TEUs, the risk of long-term overcapacity is high. Carrier profit margins are already at their lowest in 18 months, and some may report losses in Q4.
Regional Outlook
- Northeast Asia is supported by strong AI and high-tech exports, although space to Southeast Asia is tight.
- In Southeast Asia and India, Golden Week, Deepavali, and rising e-commerce are adding pressure on logistics, while La Niña could bring disruptions in the Philippines.
- Australia’s airfreight capacity remains stable due to passenger flights
- North America is experiencing seasonal demand from seafood and retail goods
- Europe faces risks from drone activity over the Baltic, adding uncertainty to already weak Trans-Atlantic trade.
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September to November is always the peak season for air freight. This year, demand growth is more focused on Southeast Asia, particularly Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore. With high-tech, AI, and semiconductor production increasing in these countries, more finished goods are being shipped out. As a result, we expect capacity pressure at major transit hubs including Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Korea.
VP, Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco Express Group