Global manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0 in September, its highest level since February 2022, with export orders growing at their fastest pace in more than five years as AI hardware and year-end retail demand keep the Q4 peak running. The pressure point is shifting to intra-Asia as carriers move short-sea tonnage into deep-sea trades, while long-haul capacity recovers with the Suez return and eased Panama draft limits.
Air Outlook
- China-US airfreight has peaked after AI server and electronics shipments drove this rally; rates should ease but hold high through December, with JFK and ORD under more pressure than LAX.
- Winter schedule changes and APEC are limiting freighter and belly capacity just as Black Friday, Christmas and AI volumes build, so space is not opening up before year-end.
- Capacity is tightest ex Taiwan, Vietnam and Penang, while LAX, ORD and YYZ are at backlog on Asia-bound cargo.
- China-Europe stays soft as new EU e-commerce handling fees from November keep platforms cautious, with the UK the firmest lane; Christmas stocking and rising fuel could lift rates late in the month.
- Rates are rising to Australia, Canada, Japan and India, while some Middle East points have suspended cargo acceptance.
Ocean Freight Outlook
- Intra-Asia is the new pressure point: carriers are shifting short-sea tonnage into deep-sea trades and feeder ships are scarce, pushing intra-Asia rates out of China to record highs.
- Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia stay tight from North China; intra-Asia bookings now need the same lead time as long-haul.
- The Suez return is accelerating, with 63% of Far East-Europe capacity back; carriers pushed a GRI after a 12-week rate slide, but Asia-Europe faces downward pressure heading into 2027 contract talks.
- Transpacific demand stays firm into year-end and Asian berth waits have eased to 2-3 days after Golden Week, but blank sailings keep rollover risk high on US-bound sailings.
- Typhoon Champi disrupted Shanghai and Ningbo on 24-25 October, with 1-2 weeks of knock-on delays expected.
“Everyone is watching Suez and the transpacific, but the tightest space in Asia right now is on the short-sea lanes. When carriers pull feeder tonnage into deep-sea trades, a regional box can be harder to place than one bound for Europe – give intra-Asia bookings the same lead time as long-haul.”
Trade & Supply Chain Watch
- The Court of International Trade certified a nationwide IEEPA refund class on 8 October, and CAPE Phase 3 opened on 6 October for CIT plaintiffs; importers should keep ACH banking and importer of record details current.
- Middle East disruption remains fluid, with some Gulf points suspending air cargo acceptance; confirm carrier acceptance before booking.
- The APEC Summit (18-19 November) may halt Shenzhen terminal acceptance on 16-20 November, so plan South China exports around it.
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“The US rally has peaked, but space isn’t opening up. With no freighter capacity coming before year-end, rates will settle high rather than drop – and quiet lanes like Europe can turn fast once Christmas stocking and fuel kick in.”
VP, Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco Express Group