The agreement between US West Coast dockers and liner and port interests will not lead to the mass return of cargo to West Coast terminals, either this year or in the medium-term, according to leading shipping and retail experts.
The uncertainty around negotiations prompted many shippers in the Transpacific lane to route cargo to US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, and even via Mexico and Canada.
However, on the latest episode of the Dimerco-sponsored Freight Buyers Club podcast, Jessica Dankert, Vice President Supply Chain for the Retail Industry Leaders Association, (RILA), said the deal was too late to affect significant volumes in 2023. Also, large volumes of imports have already been assigned to container services calling at US East and Gulf Coasts terminals.
“I honestly don’t think that all of that volume is going to head back to the West Coast,” she said. “The uncertainty around the labor negotiations was certainly part of those decisions of that migration of the cargo volumes to the East and Gulf Coast, but it wasn’t the only factor that was playing into that.”
Dankert cited infrastructure shortfalls at West Coast terminals and inland, as well as faster population growth in the US in more eastern and southern States.
“The majority of the US population is in the East,” she added. “A lot of that volume had been shifting even before the pandemic, so it’s not a new thing necessarily driven by the [labor contract negotiations] or the uncertainty around that.
“I think some of [the container volume] comes back, but some of it doesn’t.”
