Air cargo has surprisingly held up well in 2025. Rates remain more stable than ocean freight, and demand on key lanes like Asia to Europe continues to show strength.
This resilience is striking given the policy shifts, softer e-commerce flows from China, and ongoing adjustments in global sourcing. Airlines have responded by redeploying freighters, opening new routings through Southeast Asia, and adapting networks to capture demand where it is strongest.
In the latest Freight Buyers’ Club podcast, Tom Crabtree, Managing Director at Transport Research Advisors and Boeing air cargo analyst, and Robert van de Weg, CEO of Mexico based mas Cargo Airline, explain why the market has not collapsed and whether a late peak season is still to come. The episode offers a clear view of how air cargo is adapting to 2025.
Where the market stands now
Tom Crabtree shared that global air freight grew about 3 percent through July 2025 year to date. He noted that growth has slowed compared with 2024, when a surge in e-commerce and Red Sea diversions had pushed volumes higher. Capacity growth has kept pace, leaving the market more balanced. Performance varies by lane, which he captured plainly. “There are some markets out there that are booming and there’s markets out there that are just really struggling.”
From the operator’s side, Robert van de Weg described the day to day reality. “It’s been a rollercoaster year. I mean, every month there’s something new.” He noted softer automotive volumes in Latin America and the need to add secondary stops to keep aircraft productive while demand rotates across regions.
How we got here
According to Crabtree, a lot of large widebody freighter operators are redeploying capacity on trade lanes where demand is strong, particularly Asia to Europe, while shifting away from weaker flows into the United States. He explained that the transpacific market fell about 10 to 11 percent in May after new U.S. tariffs and the end of de minimis for China and Hong Kong, then was only down about four and a half to 5 percent in June, and just 1 percent in July. By late September, IATA data could even show transpacific volumes turning positive.
Ocean blank sailings and faltering reliability have also nudged time sensitive shippers back to air, reinforcing the point that reliability matters as much as price. Crabtree observed that trade tends to find a way around obstacles, and flexibility has been a clear advantage this year.
Van de Weg highlighted how network agility has limited the damage from sudden drops in low value e-commerce. Even with sharp swings, carriers redeployed capacity into stronger corridors and kept yields from collapsing.
What to watch out for next
Will the Peak Arrive: Tom Crabtree expects a peak season that arrives later than usual and is likely smaller than 2024, but still a peak. If ocean carriers cut back services to stabilize pricing, air cargo could see a late-season uplift as shippers turn to reliability.
Southeast Asia Growth: Robert van de Weg pointed to Vietnam and the broader Southeast Asia region as rising sources of volume. As manufacturing and sourcing continue to diversify away from China, these markets are becoming central to air cargo flows.
Signals from Latin America: For mas Cargo Airline, an improving automotive sector could lift scheduled business between Mexico and South America. Northbound demand is also supported by resilient flows of flowers, which continue to anchor capacity planning.
Is Air Cargo Resilient Enough to Weather a Late Peak
If there is one theme running through this conversation, it is the surprising resilience of air cargo. Operators are finding ways to adapt networks, shippers are adjusting to policy changes, and the industry as a whole is still looking toward a peak season, even if it arrives later than usual.
You can hear the full conversation with Tom Crabtree and Robert van de Weg on the Freight Buyers’ Club podcast. Stay on top of market moves and practical analysis for freight buyers and supply chain leaders by subscribing for more interviews and insights.
Get in touch with a Dimerco specialist to rebalance air and ocean and prepare for a late peak season.
