The global shipping and supply chain community came together in early March to discuss and highlight how disruptions to key trade routes, tariff developments, and changing sourcing strategies are influencing global freight networks at S&P Global’s TPM 2026 conference.
A recurring topic was the shifting pattern of air cargo flows across Asia and the growing pressure on available capacity.
Kathy Liu, Vice President of Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group, shared her perspective during a TPM panel discussion, pointing to how evolving trade policies and shifting manufacturing patterns are beginning to reshape cargo movements between Asia, Europe, and North America.
Market outlook: supply growth and industry consolidation
There were also discussions focused on broader shipping market fundamentals that continue shaping freight procurement strategies.
For example, container shipping supply is expected to grow by around 4 percent while demand growth is projected between 2 and 4 percent. This imbalance is contributing to continued pressure on freight rates and increasing competition among carriers.
Industry consolidation was another topic frequently referenced during conference sessions. Over the past decade the container shipping market has become significantly more concentrated, with fewer global carriers controlling a larger share of capacity.
In 2015 roughly thirteen shipping lines controlled about 75 percent of global container capacity. Today that same share is concentrated among a much smaller group of major carriers including MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, COSCO, Hapag-Lloyd, ZIM, and ONE.
As consolidation continues, shippers are placing greater emphasis on contract structure, service reliability, and procurement strategies when negotiating ocean freight agreements.
Middle East disruptions are tightening global air cargo capacity
Kathy pointed out that the current situation in the Middle East is already affecting air cargo markets. Several major Middle Eastern airlines operate a significant share of global cargo freighter capacity.
As disruptions affect these carriers and surrounding airspace, cargo that would normally move through Middle East hubs is increasingly being rerouted through Asia.
This shift is placing additional pressure on major transshipment hubs including Shanghai, Hong Kong, Taipei, Japan, and South Korea.
At the same time, these hubs are already managing strong shipment volumes tied to U.S. trade lanes and growing intra Asia demand following the Lunar New Year period.
“We are already seeing Asia to Europe rates increasing and capacity tightening as cargo that normally moves through the Middle East is rerouted through major Asian hubs.”
Ocean freight disruptions are adding further pressure on global supply chains
Industry participants at TPM 2026 also discussed the Middle East conflict operational impact. More than 100 container vessels are currently waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting an estimated 450,000 to 500,000 TEU of cargo.
Each additional day of delay can take several days for ports and shipping networks to recover, which means prolonged disruptions could take weeks to fully clear.
Disruptions linked to the situation in the Middle East were also widely discussed during the conference.
According to industry estimates shared during TPM sessions, more than 100 container vessels are currently waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting an estimated 450,000 to 500,000 TEU of cargo.
Each additional day of delay can take several days for ports and shipping networks to recover, which means prolonged disruptions could take weeks to fully clear.
Colombo has emerged as a key transshipment hub absorbing diverted cargo, with waiting times increasing from roughly one day to three to five days as yards approach capacity.
If cargo is redirected to alternative ports such as Singapore or major Indian gateways, congestion and delays could spread further across regional supply chains.
Operational impacts emerging from the disruption
Some carriers have also begun declaring “end of voyage” on certain sailings, allowing cargo to be discharged at alternative ports rather than the originally scheduled destination.
In these cases, shippers may need to arrange onward transportation by truck, rail, or air freight to reach final markets.
Industry participants are also warning that equipment imbalances could soon emerge at Asian load ports as containers become stranded in disrupted trade lanes.
Rising oil prices are also expected to trigger additional surcharges from ocean carriers, including fuel surcharges, war risk premiums, and higher insurance costs. These pressures could also filter into air cargo markets as jet fuel prices increase.
Freight market impacts to watch
As more cargo moves through these gateways, capacity on Asia to Europe routes has begun tightening and freight rates are increasing. If disruptions continue, the impact could extend beyond Europe-bound shipments.
Additional cargo redirected through Asian hubs could eventually affect shipments moving to North America and within Asia as well, creating broader capacity constraints across multiple trade lanes.
For more detail on the operational impact of the current disruption, see the latest freight alert on Middle East disruptions.
Tariff uncertainty may influence shipping demand
Trade policy developments were another topic closely watched by shippers and logistics providers during TPM discussions. Recent developments in U.S. tariff policy are adding another layer of uncertainty for companies planning shipments in 2026.
Recent rulings related to IEEPA tariffs and ongoing compliance requirements tied to Section 232 tariffs are prompting many importers to reassess their supply chain strategies.
Several operational implications were highlighted during discussions:
- Some businesses may accelerate shipments to move cargo ahead of potential tariff changes or higher import duties.
- This type of front-loading can increase freight demand during periods when capacity is already tight
- Some shippers expect front-loading activity to increase toward late May and June for ocean shipments and early summer for air freight as companies attempt to move cargo ahead of potential tariff deadlines tied to the current policy review period.
Industry analysts at TPM echoed similar concerns about the complexity of the current tariff environment. During a Freight Buyers’ Club discussion recorded on site, Paul Bingham, Director of Transportation Consulting at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that many importers are still trying to determine their actual tariff exposure and what duties they ultimately owe.
Navigating refund processes and evolving compliance requirements may require close coordination with customs brokers and logistics partners as companies respond to rapidly changing trade policies.
For additional insight into these developments, see this recent analysis on Section 232 tariff compliance guidance for importers and the Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs.
Southeast Asia continues gaining importance in global supply chains
In addition to short term disruptions, longer term structural changes in global manufacturing are also influencing air cargo flows.
As companies diversify supply chains, Southeast Asian markets such as Vietnam and Thailand are playing an increasingly important role in export manufacturing. This shift is already increasing air cargo demand across several trade lanes connecting Asia with North America and Europe.
However, much of this cargo still moves through major Asian hubs for onward connections. As manufacturing networks evolve, effective capacity management across these gateway airports will become increasingly important.
Ocean freight procurement trends discussed at TPM
Conference sessions also highlighted several operational factors that are influencing ocean freight procurement in 2026.
Shifting sourcing strategies, tariff developments, and the expansion of alternative routing options such as Cape transits are changing how companies evaluate transportation costs and service reliability.
Front loading has also altered traditional seasonal shipping patterns. Instead of sharp peak seasons, some shippers are spreading shipments earlier across the year to reduce tariff risk and secure capacity.
Blank sailings remain a factor in carrier capacity management, although reliability across major trade lanes has improved compared with previous years.
Key developments to monitor in global freight markets
Looking ahead, several factors could influence freight availability and pricing across global air cargo markets.
- First, the duration of disruptions affecting Middle East airspace will determine how long cargo must be rerouted through alternative hubs. Longer disruptions could intensify capacity constraints across multiple trade lanes.
- Second, tariff developments and potential policy changes may influence shipment timing as companies adjust supply chain strategies.
- Finally, ongoing shifts in manufacturing across Asia continue to reshape global cargo flows.
Together, these developments are creating a more dynamic operating environment for global supply chains in 2026.
As air cargo routes continue to adjust and capacity shifts across key hubs, many companies are reassessing how they plan shipments between Asia, Europe, and North America. Flexibility in routing and early planning are becoming more important as market conditions evolve.
Get in touch with a Dimerco logistics specialist to discuss how these developments may affect your shipments.
