Global manufacturing activity remains resilient, anchored by strong semiconductor, AI-server, and high-tech demand across Asia, led by Taiwan. A provisional US-Iran ceasefire has reopened the Strait of Hormuz toll-free, easing the immediate fuel threat, but the deal remains unresolved and, together with the Southeast Asia monsoon and July tariff changes, continues to drive volatility. Both air and ocean capacity stay tight as peak season builds.
Air Outlook
- Strong AI and semiconductor demand from Taiwan to the US has left the Taipei (TPE) transit hub fully loaded, keeping outbound capacity tight and rates firm across US and regional lanes.
- Terminal congestion at Bangkok and Manila is extending door-to-door lead times; shippers are advised to build in additional buffer time on these lanes.
- Early-June frontloading of US-bound cargo proved short-lived, lasting about two weeks before transpacific eastbound volumes normalised.
- Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore remain among the tightest airfreight markets, especially on US and Europe lanes.
- Australia runs counter to the regional trend, with jet fuel easing around 10% and carriers trimming surcharges.
Ocean Freight Outlook
- Stronger-than-expected US import demand is keeping transpacific space tight and rates firm through peak season; pre-book three to four weeks ahead.
- Rates on Asia-Europe and Asia-US lanes are firming on disruption rather than peak demand, as carriers layer in bunker and fuel-related surcharges, GRIs and PSS.
- Blank sailings and congestion at transshipment hubs such as Singapore and Port Klang are tightening effective capacity and lifting rollover risk from mid-July.
- Intra-Asia lanes stay broadly stable on ample competition, while Europe demand remains soft with Rotterdam congestion and higher FAK/PSS the main cost pressures.
US import demand has stayed stronger than most expected, and that’s keeping space tight right through peak season. The difference this month is on cost. If the Strait of Hormuz stays calm, we may finally see fuel pressure ease rather than build.
Trade & Supply Chain Watch
- A provisional US-Iran ceasefire has reopened the Strait of Hormuz toll-free, easing the immediate fuel threat, but the framework is unresolved and fuel costs and long-haul routing remain two-way risks through the negotiation window.
- The Southwest Monsoon is intensifying across Southeast and South Asia, adding weather-driven delays and moisture risk; protective packaging is advised for sensitive air and ocean cargo.
- July 1 regulatory cutovers — UK ETS maritime extension and EU-US tariff changes — are reshaping cost and demand on Europe-connected lanes, while the USMCA 2026 review adds tariff uncertainty in Mexico.
- A new US Executive Order, “Strengthening Customs Enforcement” (June 3), tightens Importer of Record rules — higher bonds, tangible US-asset requirements, restrictions on foreign IORs, and expanded disclosure — phased across 90- and 180-day deadlines; details await CBP rulemaking, but US-bound shippers should review bond adequacy and IOR structure early.
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The clearest signal this month is out of Taiwan. AI-driven volumes have filled the TPE transit hub to capacity, and until that demand eases, space and rates across US and regional lanes will stay under real pressure.
VP, Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco Express Group