- Global manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 in August, a three-month high and a thirteenth straight month of expansion, with export orders growing for the first time in four months.
- AI, semiconductor and year-end retail demand keep Q4 volumes firm across Asia.
- Congestion rather than demand is setting rates, with typhoon backlogs, Yantian’s intake cap and Golden Week blank sailings removing capacity faster than demand is cooling.
- The US-China tariff truce now runs to 10 January 2027, while CAPE IEEPA refunds open on 6 October under narrow eligibility.
Air Outlook
- Tariff clarity from the Xi–Trump meeting should release held-back China-US cargo just as Q4 peak season builds on transpacific eastbound.
- Ocean congestion and near-pandemic ocean rates are pushing more cargo from ocean to air on transpacific and intra-Asia lanes.
- Capacity is tight to the US from most Asian origins, with Singapore at backlog on both coasts and Thailand slowed by narrow-body downgrades and flooding at BKK.
- Taiwan and Korea remain tight on AI, semiconductor and HPC exports, with Chuseok volumes pressuring ex-ICN space to Southeast Asia.
- Golden Week bookings look soft at this stage, but that can turn quickly — book early to reserve space and lock rates.
Ocean Freight Outlook
- Peak season is running longer than expected, with demand not slowing as forecast and overflow from earlier sailings still clearing.
- Blank sailings around Golden Week are being announced with much shorter notice, tightening space and equipment and raising rollover risk into late October.
- Typhoon backlogs congest Shanghai and Ningbo, on-time performance has fallen to 21% at Shanghai, and Yantian’s 120% intake cap limits empty releases.
- Asia-US stays tight with rates rising on Q4 demand, while Asia-Europe rates keep falling as carriers resume Suez transits.
- European gateways face German port strikes at Hamburg, Bremerhaven and Wilhelmshaven, with low water at Kaub adding cost to hinterland moves.
“Everyone expected October to mark the start of the slowdown, but the cargo hasn’t stopped and the overflow is still rolling forward. With carriers blanking sailings at short notice, the real risk isn’t port congestion, it’s space disappearing before you’ve booked it.”
Trade & Supply Chain Watch
- CAPE IEEPA refund Phase Three opens 6 October, limited to importers with a case on file at the CIT and an IOR submitted to CBP by 30 July.
- The US-China truce runs to 10 January 2027, with a reduction framework covering $30 billion or more in goods still under negotiation.
- USTR’s Section 301 overcapacity determinations, covering sixteen economies across Asia-Pac and Mexico, remain pending — with no rate cap and no expiry, they are the more durable tariff vehicle.
- The Panama Canal is running about 32 transits a day; rainfall through the rest of the wet season decides water availability for the January-to-April 2027 dry season.
- CBP has begun voiding importer of record numbers carrying incomplete or inaccurate company details.
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“Bookings look quiet right now, but that’s the calm before the door opens. Once held-back China-US cargo releases and ocean congestion pushes shippers into air, the space will face some constraints”
VP, Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco Express Group