Global manufacturing logged a twelfth straight month of expansion in July, though the pace was the softest since March. AI and semiconductor demand holds up out of Taiwan and Korea while consumer volumes soften. The ocean market has stopped moving as one: typhoons removed capacity involuntarily across Chinese ports, and although demand is cooling almost everywhere, rates are holding because supply is tightening faster than demand is falling. Panama’s draft restrictions and a cautious Suez return keep long-haul routing and cost in flux.
Air Outlook
- The EU’s removal of its de minimis exemption on 1 July continues to hold Asia-Europe demand and rates down, compounded by the summer holiday lull; September should bring a modest recovery on quarter-end shipping and pre-Golden Week bookings, but the e-commerce base has not returned.
- Asia-US demand still leans heavily on AI-related products out of Taiwan, where capacity is tight and rates are rising on every lane, while ex-China volumes into the US remain soft with no meaningful pickup.
- Intra-Asia traffic is running below the same period last year, and some China-Vietnam and China-Thailand volume has shifted to road freight on cost and lead-time grounds.
- Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore remain the tightest airfreight markets, with India at backlog to Europe and US West Coast on airspace restrictions.
- Middle East re-routing still stretches long-haul sectors, while typhoons at Chinese gateways and India’s monsoon add ground-side friction; South Korea reports Asia-US load factors near 90%.
Ocean Freight Outlook
- Typhoons hit Shanghai, Ningbo, Yantian and Hong Kong at different times, leaving an estimated 400,000 TEU awaiting clearance and congestion set to persist into September, with Shekou and Yantian still under gate-in restrictions.
- Peak season keeps space tightening to Europe and North America across Asia, with carriers layering in peak season and bunker surcharges; secure space 1-2 weeks ahead for intra-Asia and 2-3 weeks for Europe and North America.
- Panama’s fifth draft reduction takes effect 3 September and the Suez return stays cautious, keeping Cape of Good Hope routing in place on Asia-Europe and extending transits.
- Korea’s frontloading-driven rates have passed their two-year high and are easing gradually, with Europe expected to follow; Q3 low sulphur surcharge increases substantially offset the decline, so factor them into every quotation.
- Intra-Asia holds stable on ample capacity, while Singapore and Australia run counter to the regional trend with capacity soft.
“The transpacific isn’t one market any more – each port has its own balance point, and capacity is being removed involuntarily. That’s why slowing demand isn’t pulling rates down. Panama and Suez will decide where the market settles.”
Trade & Supply Chain Watch
- From 18 September, CBP may immediately void an Importer of Record number where Form 5106 data is inaccurate or incomplete, with no cure period; audit every active record and remove broker, forwarder or agent details before the deadline.
- A pending Section 301 overcapacity determination covers sixteen economies and over 75% of US imports, including China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, India and Mexico, with no rate cap and no expiry.
- Canada applies counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% to around 700 US-origin products from 8 September; Asia-origin cargo is not directly hit, but Canadian buyers sourcing through US distributors face a step change in landed cost.
- Australia’s BMSB season runs 1 September to 30 April and DAFF has removed both the Safeguarding Arrangements Scheme and the Rolled Goods Policy; book treatment with an approved provider before loading.
- Navi Mumbai International Airport is adding freighter services across Asia, Europe and West Asia over the coming months, which should ease India-Europe and India-Asia capacity as the ramp builds.
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“The split isn’t by lane anymore, it’s by commodity. AI out of Taiwan fills aircraft while everything else drifts – and Europe still hasn’t replaced the e-commerce base it lost in July.”
VP, Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco Express Group