In 2026, freight buyers seem to be balancing more than pricing and lead times. Tariffs, sanctions, and new trade restrictions are forcing companies to rethink how and where they move goods. For example, rerouting to avoid politically sensitive ports or navigating longer inland legs due to chokepoints like the Panama Canal have become real planning concerns.
In the latest Freight Buyers’ Club podcast, James Hookham, Director of the Global Shippers Forum, and Robbert van Trooijen, former Maersk executive and founder of Inception Partners, unpack how political alignment is reshaping freight strategy and what shippers need to prepare for in the months ahead.
The Old Playbook Is Breaking Down
“Supply chains are no longer just commercial,” says Hookham. “They are now geopolitical infrastructure.” From Panama to Indonesia, countries are being pulled into political alignment choices that directly affect trade routes. For logistics teams, that means reevaluating sourcing, routing, and inventory buffers through the lens of geopolitical risk.
Van Trooijen supports this view. Having led carrier operations across Latin America and Asia-Pacific, he sees growing friction between trade blocs and increased pressure from local governments. The global market has not recovered its former fluidity. “You can’t just undo 30 years of global trade,” he says. But many of the rules that enabled it have changed.
This shift is especially visible in Asia-focused supply chains, where trade partnerships and sourcing strategies are increasingly sensitive to policy changes. For companies operating in this space, regional knowledge and flexible routing strategies have become key competitive tools.
Overcapacity Could Be the Next Disruption
Beyond geopolitics, Hookham warns of another structural threat building within the industry: vessel overcapacity. With one-third of the global container fleet currently on order, capacity is expanding faster than demand. “That’s a problem we’re going to feel in 2026,” he says.
Van Trooijen points out that this isn’t just a carrier problem. “There’s no amount of leadership that can overcome that volume of new capacity.” If rates fall too quickly or too far, smaller carriers may be forced to consolidate or exit the market altogether.
At the same time, inland congestion is becoming more unpredictable. Chinese ports, U.S. terminals, and inland hubs are under pressure due to aging infrastructure, equipment delays, and increasingly politicized sourcing decisions. Shippers now need to model both ocean and inland disruptions as part of their end-to-end planning.
Surcharges Are Rising, Transparency Is Shrinking
Hookham doesn’t hold back: “Surcharges are the bane of shippers’ lives.” As carriers look to protect margins, buyers are seeing more accessorial charges introduced with less transparency. “Shippers become price takers in this market,” he says, which causes issues for internal budgeting and cost controls.
Van Trooijen adds context from the carrier perspective. Surcharges often reflect real exposure to variables like bunker fuel, labor costs, or shifting port operations. However, Hookham stresses that shippers are looking for partners who push back against costs, not just pass them along.
The advice from both sides is clear. Freight buyers should use a mix of contract types to manage volatility. A 60/40 or 70/30 split between fixed and floating rates offers room to adapt. Diversifying across carrier alliances and trade lanes helps mitigate risk, especially during periods of blank sailings. Index-linked contracts may offer more pricing predictability, particularly with ongoing disruptions in the Suez and Panama Canal corridors.
Mergers, Acquisitions, and a Changing Carrier Landscape
Van Trooijen expects carrier consolidation to pick up speed in the coming year. “The gap between the top four carriers and the rest is now uncomfortably large.” Smaller lines may face growing pressure to merge or risk being squeezed out.
Carriers are also looking to shore up control through inland assets. Investments in terminals, last-mile delivery, and intermodal capabilities are giving some players a strategic edge. But the panel is cautious about this trend. “M&A fails more than half the time,” Van Trooijen says. Success depends on operational integration, not just financial scale.
For shippers, these structural shifts could affect service levels, rate consistency, and even how capacity is allocated. Staying informed on consolidation trends is key, particularly for those using niche carriers or relying on single-alliance strategies.
Globalization Is Still Intact, but More Fragmented
Despite growing tension between markets, neither guest sees globalization ending. “You can’t support a planet of 6 billion by growing everything in your backyard,” says Hookham. But they agree that trade is becoming more regionalized, more politically influenced, and less stable.
For shippers, that means adapting to a world where commercial logic is no longer the only driver. Trade lanes, sourcing decisions, and even warehousing strategies must now reflect the political dynamics of a two-bloc world.
Need support navigating geopolitical freight shifts in 2026?
If your supply chain strategy is being reshaped by geopolitical risk, shifting trade routes, or cost volatility, Dimerco can help. Our teams across Asia, North America, and Europe support global shippers with proactive routing plans, contract design, and real-time freight execution.
Get in touch with a Dimerco specialist and we’ll work together to turn uncertainty into smarter freight decisions.
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