Contracting season is underway, but the rules are still moving. Shippers are negotiating rates while tariff authority remains unsettled and regulators signal a more active role in global supply chains.
That tension is shaping freight decisions across the market right now. Conditions favor shippers today, but policy risk continues to sit just offstage. Tariffs may ease or expand, and trade deals may eventually materialize, but none of it is moving fast enough to guide near term freight decisions. There are positive signals, but not enough certainty to anchor planning.
In this episode of the Freight Buyers’ Club, Mark Szakonyi, Executive Editor at the Journal of Commerce, and Lori Fellmer, VP of Logistics at BassTech International, break down how tariff uncertainty and contracting season dynamics are shaping shipper strategy heading into 2026.
Tariff Policy Moves Slower Than Freight Markets
Trade policy headlines often arrive long before anything changes on the water. According to Mark Szakonyi, trade deals can take years to translate into meaningful cargo volumes, even when they are announced with urgency.
He pointed to recent tariff developments involving India as an example of easing rhetoric that still lacks near term operational impact. Other widely discussed agreements remain under negotiation months after their initial announcements.
For shippers, that delay creates a familiar challenge. Costs can shift before policy settles, leaving logistics teams to manage exposure without firm timelines or clear direction.
Lori Fellmer noted that for importers of raw materials, flexibility is limited. Sourcing cannot change quickly, which means logistics teams are often responsible for minimizing tariff impact through routing decisions, timing, and coordination across supply chain partners.
Contracting Season Favors Shippers, With Limits
As negotiations move toward TPM 2026, leverage has shifted toward shippers. Capacity remains available, spot rates are lower than a year ago, and early contract bids are reflecting that pressure.
Szakonyi cautioned against assuming spot rates tell the whole story. While they serve as a useful barometer, contract pricing still reflects broader considerations around service, reliability, and network discipline.
From the shipper side, Fellmer emphasized that aggressive rate squeezing rarely delivers long term value. The current market rewards careful partner selection and a clear understanding of how carriers behave when conditions tighten again.
The FMC Is Expanding Its Role
Regulatory oversight is also changing. Newly confirmed FMC Chair Laura DiBella outlined a broader and more assertive role for the Federal Maritime Commission during her exclusive interview on the podcast.
Under her leadership, the FMC is looking beyond billing disputes and alliance oversight. Global chokepoints, denied port access, and foreign actions that restrict US cargo movement are now part of the enforcement landscape.
Laura DiBella stressed that shippers should engage the FMC earlier than they might expect. For shippers, the takeaway is practical, and it starts with documentation. Repeated bottlenecks, denied access, and service failures need to be recorded early and consistently to support enforcement action.
She described the FMC as evolving into a consumer protection agency for US shippers, with a stronger global posture than in the past.
SME Shippers Still Face Structural Limits
Fellmer also addressed how small and mid sized shippers continue to face structural disadvantages when contracting with ocean carriers.
Volume still drives commitment, and weekly service allocations tend to favor larger BCOs. While softer market conditions may lower some thresholds, expectations should remain realistic.
Carrier selection, she noted, often matters more than marginal rate differences, particularly when reliability and consistency are critical to smaller operations.
A Rail Merger Worth Watching
Inland transportation is also under review. The proposed Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern merger could reshape how cargo moves across North America.
If approved, the deal could strengthen West Coast routings and simplify intermodal transfers. It could also reduce competitive pressure in certain lanes. Regulators are still reviewing the proposal and may impose conditions.
For freight buyers, this is a development worth tracking closely, especially for cargo that depends on rail beyond the ports.
What Shippers Should Take From This
Three themes stand out as 2026 contract negotiations begin.
Policy will continue to lag market behavior.
Leverage exists, but it will not last indefinitely.
Documentation is becoming a strategic tool.
Shippers entering this contract season need more than competitive rates. They need market awareness, regulatory understanding, and partners who can operate under uncertainty.
Subscribe to the Freight Buyers’ Club podcast to hear the full conversation and stay informed as contract season unfolds.
If you are navigating contract negotiations, tariff exposure, or regulatory complexity, get in touch with a Dimerco specialist to discuss how to position your supply chain for 2026 and beyond.
