Freight markets are volatile, trade rules are tightening, and decarbonization is falling off the agenda. Where does that leave global shippers?
In the latest episode of the Freight Buyers’ Club, we hear directly from three experts at the forefront of global trade disruption: Wolfgang Lehmacher, an independent supply chain and logistics strategist; Kathy Liu, VP of Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group; and Renaud Anjoran, founder of Agilian and a seasoned sourcing specialist with decades of experience in Asia-based manufacturing.
Freight Rates Are Falling, But Markets Are More Volatile
While falling rates might seem like good news, Kathy Liu warns that volatility is taking over. Ocean freight demand out of China remains soft, and traditional peak season trends are harder to identify.
She explains that the peak season this year is expected to be concentrated more in Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, rather than China. Demand in these markets is rising, but long-haul airfreight capacity to the US and Europe remains limited.
At the same time, US regulatory changes are disrupting air cargo volumes. The end of the de minimis exemption exemption has slashed e-commerce shipments from China, forcing B2C players to switch to ocean freight and rethink their inventory models. Kathy describes this shift as a kind of switchback. After years of B2C growth driven by the de minimis threshold, many shippers are now returning to consolidated freight and ocean shipments.
She also shares that while capacity in China is now exceeding demand, Southeast Asia is facing the opposite challenge. Limited airfreight capacity from countries like Vietnam and Malaysia is creating bottlenecks for shipments heading to the US and Europe.
This imbalance is prompting Dimerco to build creative workarounds by connecting Southeast Asia freight through China to utilize unused capacity and smooth outbound flows.
Sourcing Strategies Are No Longer Just About Geography
Many companies still lean on a China plus one strategy to reduce exposure, but Renaud Anjoran explains that diversification can backfire. He shares that businesses shifting production into markets such as India often find themselves facing unexpected tariffs, which makes trade policy difficult to predict. As he puts it, “there is no clear logic to this.
He adds that companies are often unprepared for the operational realities of new markets.“They are used to the way it works in China. So, they go to other countries, and sometimes it’s really frustrating.”
For many supply chain leaders, this means diversification is not only about choosing another country but also about adapting to different production systems while managing constant uncertainty in trade rules.
Uncertainty Has Become the Operating System
Wolfgang Lehmacher puts the current moment in context. From Trump 1.0 to COVID to new tariff waves, companies have had no choice but to evolve. What used to be contingency planning is now business as usual. “We are no longer operating single hub supply chains. Asia has been rewired. There is more pragmatism, there is more confidence. But we are operating in constant uncertainty.”
He explains that this shift is forcing companies to redesign their supply chain architectures with uncertainty in mind. It is no longer enough to optimize for cost or speed. Flexibility has now become the priority.
He stresses that resilience depends on more than technology. Companies need to put people at the center of their systems and then thoroughly pressure test them. This means running simulations and scenario planning exercises with suppliers, customers, and authorities to make sure solutions work under stress.
Customs Compliance: Where is the Line?
With rules tightening and new US transshipment checks in focus, companies continue to explore tariff engineering and product reclassification as they navigate costs and compliance.
Renaud gives a simple example from apparel where a reclassification can reduce duty and is generally considered low risk and long practiced by major brands. He contrasts that with cases where a product is reclassified in a way that does not match its primary use, which can trigger scrutiny from US Customs.
The practical guidance is to keep paperwork in order and apply declared tariff codes while clarity evolves, since documentation can support future recovery of duties.
Sustainability: From Priority to Afterthought?
Two years ago, sustainability was at the center of industry discussions. Kathy Liu reflects on how quickly that has changed: “For the past two years, the word sustainability is a very fashionable word in the freight industry, but nowadays, people will not spend extra costs to choose the green option.”
Wolfgang Lehmacher argues that even if attention has shifted, the industry cannot afford to let decarbonization slide. He points to carbon border mechanisms and tariffs as potential drivers of change, while warning that rising geopolitical tensions risk slowing environmental progress.
Practical Advice for Shippers and Supply Chain Leaders
The conversation pointed to three priorities for navigating the year ahead: strengthen visibility across suppliers, combine talent and technology while testing solutions under stress, and stay prepared for volatility by designing smarter flows between Southeast Asia, China, and destination markets. This episode delivers clarity in a time of uncertainty, cutting through the noise for those managing trade compliance, procurement, or multimodal logistics. Subscribe to the Freight Buyers’ Club for more insights and analysis on global trade and supply chains.
To better manage tariffs, documentation, and regulatory risks, download our free eBook: Trade Compliance 101: A Practical Guide for Global Shippers.
