The recent US-China tariff truce has delivered short-term relief for global importers, and triggered a sharp spike in urgency across the supply chain. Beneficial cargo owners (BCOs), logistics leaders, and port operators are now bracing for a sudden freight surge that could strain capacity and create ripple effects across contracts, rates, and compliance.
In the latest Freight Buyers’ Club episode, industry experts share their views on how the supply chain is responding. Mark Chadwick (Global Shippers Association), Dr. Noel Hacegaba (Port of Long Beach), Zvi Schreiber (Freightos), and John McCauley (formerly Cargill) provide insights spanning freight planning, port operations, contract risk, and pricing volatility.
Pent-up Demand Is Surging
Mark Chadwick paints a clear picture of the pressure points. With many importers having delayed purchasing decisions in anticipation of new tariffs, the sudden policy shift has unleashed a wave of urgent orders. “Had this gone on another month, it would’ve been much worse,” he says. Instead, importers are now moving quickly to get goods on the water while the truce holds.
This sharp release of demand is expected to drive a short-lived surge in bookings, and BCOs are under pressure to lock in space before further policy changes disrupt momentum.
Ports are Preparing, but the Clock is Ticking
At the port level, Dr. Noel Hacegaba of the Port of Long Beach confirms that terminals are already adjusting for a coming volume spike. Based on historical shipment timelines, a 30- to 45-day lag is expected before increased container flows reach the U.S. West Coast.
“We’ve seen this movie before,” he says. The port is leveraging digital coordination tools and inland visibility platforms, lessons from the COVID-era surge to better handle the anticipated spike. But he cautions that even with planning, operational stress is inevitable.
Volatile Rates and Strategic Blind Spots
From a pricing perspective, Zvi Schreiber of Freightos warns of a predictable jump in spot rates, though he clarifies this won’t match the scale of 2020 to 2021 disruptions. With carriers managing capacity closely and blank sailings in play, shippers could face sharp cost volatility if they don’t act decisively.
For procurement and logistics teams, it’s a narrow window to assess contract terms, evaluate fallback lanes, and avoid being caught mid-negotiation in another rate swing.
Contract Clarity Amid Policy Uncertainty
The recent US-China tariff truce is also creating ambiguity around long-term agreements and future trade exposure. For John McCauley, the broader concern is the longer-term impact of policy ambiguity. He points to the recent proposed port fees on Chinese-built vessels as an example of how geopolitical strategy is bleeding into operational risk.
“Somewhere along the supply chain, someone’s going to take a hit,” he warns, noting that shippers will need to carefully assess who bears the cost in future contract clauses. Compliance, risk-sharing, and sourcing flexibility will all require sharper attention in the months ahead.
Planning Beyond the US-China Tariff Truce
The US-China tariff truce may be temporary, but the lessons aren’t. Across the industry, shippers are weighing short-term wins against long-term resilience. Contract timing, inland routing, and tariff exposure need to be re-evaluated with agility top of mind.
Subscribe and catch the full conversation now on The Freight Buyers’ Club to hear how global supply chain leaders are reacting in real time.
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