On the latest episode of the Freight Buyers’ Club, sponsored by Dimerco Express Group, the potential ILA strike, geopolitical shifts, and automation debates are discussed as key forces poised to reshape the logistics industry.
As we approach January 2025, the shipping industry braces for a potential International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports scheduled to begin on January 15th. Coming just days before President Trump’s inauguration on January 20th, the strike encapsulates a mix of political theatre, economic strategy, and operational challenges.
High Stakes and Strategic Moves
The ILA strike revolves around automation—a contentious topic that pits the union against carriers advocating for long-term efficiency gains. The debate is part of a larger narrative about how U.S. ports, already less productive than their global counterparts, must adapt to rising trade volumes.
According to Peter Tirschwell, Vice President for Maritime & Trade at S&P Global Market Intelligence, the ILA has secured a key ally in President-elect Trump, who has signalled strong support for unions and could influence the dispute through mechanisms like the Taft-Hartley Act. This political dimension adds a layer of uncertainty to an already volatile situation.
Is a Long Strike a Double-Edged Sword?
While a prolonged strike may appear detrimental, Lars Jensen, CEO and Partner at Vespucci Maritime, suggests it could benefit carriers in unexpected ways. By enduring short-term disruptions, carriers might position themselves to justify cost increases to customers. For instance, introducing an “ILA surcharge” could help offset losses. This approach reflects a broader realization that supply chain disruption, paradoxically, can sometimes enhance profitability.
Tirschhwell shares that carriers have shifted from prioritizing open ports at all costs to recognizing that disruption can strengthen their negotiating leverage and financial outcomes. This shift represents a departure from earlier practices where the primary goal was to keep ports open at all costs.
Tariffs, Automation, and Geopolitical Shifts
While the ILA strike draws immediate attention, broader geopolitical tensions continue to shape global logistics. Southeast Asia and other regions balance opportunities and risks amid U.S.-China rivalries. A weaker Iran and the shifting Red Sea dynamics are also in focus, potentially impacting shipping routes and capacity.
Lars Jensen highlights the potential for stabilization in the region through developments such as U.S.-brokered peace efforts or shifts in power, like the fall of Assad in Syria. However, even if stability is achieved, recovering from years of disruption and addressing logistical backlogs will require significant time and resources.
Adding to the uncertainty are Trump-era tariffs, which are set to return. These measures are expected to drive inflation and provoke retaliatory actions from trading partners like China. Both Jensen and Tirschwell emphasize that reshoring production or diversifying supply chains is far from a quick fix. Instead, these changes require years of investment and carry significant costs, underscoring the complexity of global trade adjustments.
Carrier Strategies: Evolving to Meet Challenges
In response to these challenges, carriers are adapting through strategic alliances and investments. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s Gemini cooperation, for instance, promises improved on-time performance, with a target of 90% port-to-port reliability. While this is an ambitious goal, achieving it will depend on both operational improvements and external stability.
Carriers are also consolidating control over capacity and asserting pricing power, signalling a fundamental shift in their strategies. Investments in logistics, air freight, and trucking further demonstrate carriers’ commitment to expanding their influence across the supply chain.
Transitioning to a Resilient Future
The interplay of labor disputes, geopolitical shifts, and carrier strategies highlights the need for resilience in global logistics. Stakeholders must navigate a landscape where disruption is the norm rather than the exception. From the Red Sea’s uncertain future to the threat of tariff hikes, the industry faces a confluence of challenges that demand agility and long-term planning.
Insights from recent client interviews reveal how companies are enhancing resilience within their supply chains. Key strategies include fostering a culture of agility, recruiting talent adept at adapting to disruptions, and prioritizing collaboration across internal departments and external partners. For instance, one logistics leader emphasized the importance of selecting 3PLs with a “can-do” mindset, ensuring they are equipped to meet urgent challenges. Another highlighted the necessity of cross-functional transparency to eliminate operational silos and improve responsiveness.
For a deeper dive into building resilience and fostering agility, explore our detailed guide on supply chain strategies here.
What Lies Ahead for Global Logistics
As 2025 approaches, companies that invest in resilience, technological advancements, and flexible logistics planning will be better equipped to navigate disruptions and seize emerging opportunities.
Dimerco Express Group remains dedicated to supporting businesses in today’s complex logistics landscape, with a strategic focus on freight movement to, from, and within the Asia-Pacific region. With over 130 offices across Asia, Dimerco offers tailored solutions to keep your supply chain running smoothly. Does your supply chain run through Asia? Reach out to our team of experts for tailored support.
For deeper insights on global logistics trends and strategies, listen to the full episode of The Freight Buyers’ Club podcast.