Key Takeaways
- Nava’s preliminary forecast puts 2027 container trade growth at 2% to 5%, depending on Gulf conditions.
- Suroto expects additional ships and shorter routings to ease capacity pressure, while McCown cautions that carriers retain an advantage.
- Compare total shipping costs, including surcharges, when evaluating rates.
- Assess reliability on your specific routes, confirm space and equipment early, and prepare alternative sailings with your freight partner.
Global container trade could grow more slowly in 2027, according to Jimmy Suroto of Nava Analytics & Research, while additional vessel capacity could ease some pressure. But freight buyers should be cautious about assuming that more capacity will automatically bring lower costs or reliable schedules.
In a recent Freight Buyers’ Club episode, Suroto joined John McCown of The McCown Report and Nick Bailey of The Signal House to discuss the outlook.
Their analysis points to a practical priority for shippers: understand conditions on the routes your business depends on and choose partners that can respond when those conditions change.
Slower Trade Growth Could Meet More Capacity
Suroto’s preliminary forecast puts global container trade growth at 2% to 5% in 2027. The lower end assumes continued Gulf hostilities, which he estimates could affect up to six million TEUs annually. If conditions normalize quickly, growth could approach 5%.
He expects growth to slow as the boost from tariff-driven trade shifts wears off. However, the outlook varies by trade lane.
Far East–North America volumes have been returning to their pre-tariff growth path, according to Suroto, who forecasts approximately 5% year–on-year growth in 2026.
Suroto says Far East–Europe trade has moved onto a higher growth trajectory as Asian exporters seek alternative markets. He says volumes increased 12% year on year from January through July 2026 and expects that stronger trajectory to continue into 2027.
On the supply side, the episode cited BIMCO’s forecast of 9% container fleet growth in 2027. Suroto argues that much of this year’s weather-related congestion is unlikely to repeat. A broader return to Suez Canal routing would also release capacity currently absorbed by longer voyages, he explained.
Suroto expects these developments to put pressure on rates and carrier earnings. For freight buyers, that creates a reason to review procurement options, while keeping contingency plans for disruptions that could tighten individual routes.
Why Carriers Still Have the Advantage
McCown cautions that the market’s balance of power has changed since the pandemic. “Right now, I’d say it’s probably advantage carrier,” he said.
In his view, carriers have learned to manage capacity more effectively, including through alliances, while disruptions can reduce available space and support higher earnings.
He also questioned whether some fuel-related charges accurately reflect underlying costs, describing rate increases imposed through additional fees as “gotcha surcharges.”
For shippers, the implication is to examine the full shipping cost. A competitive base rate may offer limited savings once surcharges and other applicable fees are included.
Assess Reliability on Your Own Routes
Even if capacity becomes more available, service performance will remain an important buying decision. Bailey argues that global reliability averages can obscure the risks affecting a particular supply chain.
“Who are we partnering with? Where are we geographically exposed? That’s the most important element,” he said.
A shipper sourcing from Asia needs to understand the performance of its actual services, origin ports and connections. A global improvement in on-time arrivals offers little reassurance if delays persist on the route supplying a production line or meeting a customer deadline.
That means evaluating carrier choices against delivery requirements, reviewing alternatives before a disruption occurs and agreeing when a shipment should switch services or routes. Bailey also emphasized the ability to make and implement decisions quickly, rather than relying on predictions alone.
Preparing With the Right Freight Partner
Dimerco’s Perspective
Our October 2026 Asia Pacific Freight Report highlights why available capacity needs to be assessed route by route. Selective blank sailings kept transpacific space tight, even as more vessels returned to Suez routing on Asia–Europe services.
More capacity across the market may not mean space is available on your route. Confirm space and equipment early with your freight forwarder, keep alternative sailings ready and allow extra time where disruptions could affect delivery.
As 2027 planning begins, freight buyers should review total costs alongside service performance and identify alternatives for their most sensitive shipments. Working with a partner that understands those priorities can help turn market information into timely shipping decisions. Start a discussion with a Dimerco specialist.
As 2027 planning begins, freight buyers should review total costs alongside service performance and identify alternatives for their most sensitive shipments. Working with a partner that understands those priorities can help turn market information into timely shipping decisions. Start a discussion with a Dimerco specialist.
Watch the full episode and subscribe to The Freight Buyers’ Club for more conversations with industry experts.
