Tariff policy is once again taking center stage for global supply chains, creating another week of uncertainty.
With several U.S. tariff deadlines approaching, importers are dealing with a policy environment where rules can change rapidly, making planning more difficult.
In the latest episode of the Freight Buyers’ Club podcast, Mike King speaks with Jon Gold, Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy at the National Retail Federation (NRF), and Torsten Hartmann, Senior Director of Trade Management, Transpacific at Hapag-Lloyd, about the challenges shaping today’s freight market.
Tariff Deadlines Continue to Reshape supply chain planning
According to Gold, the biggest challenge facing importers is no longer a single tariff announcement. It is the accumulation of multiple trade actions occurring within a very short period.
Several major developments are converging, including:
- 25% Brazil tariffs taking effect July 22
- 10% Section 122 tariffs expiring July 24
- Proposed 10% to 12.5% forced-labor tariffs covering 60 economies
- The possibility that those tariffs could take effect shortly after the Section 122 measure expires
For businesses trying to make sourcing and inventory decisions months in advance, the lack of certainty has become one of the biggest obstacles.
Gold said the uncertainty makes long-term planning difficult.
“It is extremely challenging because you just don’t know what the tariff rates are going to be and who they’re going to be applied to.”
He noted that retailers typically plan their business six to twelve months ahead. Constant changes to tariff policy make those long-term decisions significantly more difficult, regardless of whether production remains overseas or moves closer to home.
Even manufacturers expanding production in the United States are not insulated from these changes, as imported equipment, components, and production inputs may also be subject to additional duties.
What Should Shippers be Doing Now?
Freight buyers should focus on building flexibility into their supply chains instead of reacting to every tariff announcement.
Gold says diversification cannot happen overnight. It can take years to find suppliers that meet capacity and quality requirements, while ports and supporting infrastructure also need time to adapt to changing trade patterns.
Businesses that have already begun diversifying production beyond China are generally in a stronger position than those only starting to evaluate alternative sourcing options.
For smaller importers, the challenge can be even greater. Many have fewer sourcing alternatives and limited leverage when tariffs change unexpectedly.
As Gold explains, businesses need greater predictability.
“What we need to provide for all businesses is certainty so they can plan their businesses.”
Without that certainty, companies face difficult decisions around inventory, pricing, sourcing, and investment.
Strong Demand Keeps the Ocean Freight Market Moving
The transpacific market has stayed busy as importers rush cargo ahead of potential tariff changes. Hartmann says the year started slowly after Chinese New Year, but booking volumes strengthened quickly during the second quarter.
Although spot rates have eased slightly in recent weeks, Hapag-Lloyd continues to see healthy booking volumes.
“The bookings I receive on a daily basis are the same as I got a month ago,” says Hartmann.
Retailers are also bringing inventory in earlier than usual to prepare for the holiday season, helping sustain demand across the transpacific trade.
The National Retail Federation expects July to become one of the busiest months on record for U.S. container imports as companies accelerate shipments before additional trade measures potentially take effect.
The Growing Gap between Contract and Spot Rates
The gap between long-term contract rates and spot market pricing has become much wider than it was before the pandemic.
In the past, the difference between the two was relatively small. Today, it can stretch into the thousands of dollars per container, creating far more volatility across the market.
“Now you can see we have thousands of dollars of difference between the two rates. And this is what drives the volatility in the market” Hartmann says.
That growing gap makes freight procurement more challenging, particularly when market conditions change quickly.
Long-term contracts provide greater cost certainty but can limit flexibility when market conditions shift. Spot rates can offer savings when demand softens but rise quickly when capacity tightens.
According to Hartmann, many long-term contracts are generating little profit for carriers.
“Our long-term rates are, at very best, break even.”
That helps explain why carriers place so much importance on the spot market during periods of strong demand.
Why New Vessels Won’t Solve Capacity Constraints
As new vessels enter the market, some have questioned if the industry is heading toward overcapacity. Hartmann doesn’t see it that way.
His view is that ships are only one part of the equation. Ports, inland transportation networks, and logistics infrastructure haven’t expanded at the same pace, creating bottlenecks that still restrict the flow of cargo.
Adding more vessel capacity doesn’t automatically mean the supply chain can handle more freight.
Hartmann also pointed to the Gemini Cooperation as an example of how carriers are focusing on schedule reliability rather than simply adding capacity.
Outside of normal seasonal adjustments, Gemini has operated without an active blank sailing program, helping customers benefit from more consistent weekly services.
What the Hapag-Lloyd and ZIM Deal Could Mean for Shippers
If approved, the acquisition would approximately double Hapag-Lloyd’s market share on the transpacific trade to around 13 percent, making it one of the largest carriers serving that market.
Hartmann sees the acquisition as an opportunity to strengthen customer relationships and expand service offerings.
Gold says most importers aren’t expressing immediate concern. Instead, they’re watching closely to see how further consolidation could affect capacity, competition, and service levels.
For freight buyers, the priority is making sure service quality and available capacity aren’t compromised as the industry continues to evolve.
China Plus One Continues to Reshape Asian Supply Chains
Manufacturers have been diversifying production away from China for several years, and that shift shows no signs of slowing.
Vietnam has become a major destination for companies expanding manufacturing across Southeast Asia.
According to Hartmann, Hapag-Lloyd is adjusting capacity to support changing trade flows.
“We do move capacity toward where customers want it.”
China is still Asia’s largest manufacturing hub, but production is spreading across Southeast Asia. Carriers are adapting their networks to match changing customer demand.
For freight buyers pursuing China Plus One strategies, transportation capacity is following those manufacturing shifts.
Better Visibility Supports Better Decisions
Gold says retailers are looking for greater transparency around carrier surcharges, fees, dispute resolution processes, and operational changes that affect planning.
Better visibility helps businesses make informed decisions before disruptions become costly.
As supply chains become more complex, timely information is becoming just as valuable as transportation capacity itself.
Preparing for an uncertain second half of the year
One consistent theme was that businesses should expect more change in the months ahead.
The market isn’t standing still. Tariff decisions are still unfolding, freight rates continue to fluctuate, and manufacturing is spreading across Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, infrastructure constraints and changing demand are creating new challenges for global supply chains.
Staying flexible is the best way to respond for freight buyers. Diversifying sourcing, building resilient transportation strategies, and working closely with trusted logistics partners can help businesses adapt as conditions change.
To hear the full conversation with Jon Gold and Torsten Hartmann, subscribe to the Freight Buyers’ Club podcast for expert insights on the issues shaping global supply chains.
If your business is evaluating sourcing options, responding to new tariff developments, or adapting transportation strategies across Asia and beyond, connect with a Dimerco logistics specialist to explore solutions tailored to your supply chain.
