The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered another wave of disruption across global supply chains, with capacity tightening, fuel markets under pressure, and shippers once again asking familiar questions about resilience.
But if you step back from the headlines, it’s a familiar pattern.
Supply chain management is not defined by how companies react in a crisis, it comes down to decisions made long before anything goes wrong.
As discussed in the latest Freight Buyers’ Club episode, the companies that handle disruptions best are not the ones reacting fastest today, but the ones that built flexibility into their operations when things were still running smoothly.
Resilience sounds good but efficiency still wins
Every disruption brings the same question, why are supply chains not more resilient?
As Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, explains, it’s not because companies do not understand the risk, it comes down to economics.
In theory, resilience means redundancy, with extra capacity, backup suppliers, and infrastructure that sits idle until something breaks, but in reality, supply chains are built for efficiency.
Ships are run full, warehouses are tightly managed, inventory is kept as low as possible, and every part of the system is designed to keep costs down, which works when conditions are stable.
The trade-off is simple, real resilience costs money, and most of the time that investment does not pay off.
Lars makes the point with an example, the Los Angeles and Long Beach port complex sits in a major earthquake zone, and if it were shut down, there is not enough spare capacity elsewhere in North America to take the volume, meaning a fully resilient system would require a second port complex sitting idle, which is never going to happen.
This is how the tradeoff plays out in practice
If you are standing in a supermarket choosing between a ten-dollar imported shirt and a twenty-dollar domestic one, most people pick the cheaper option.
A manufacturer buying something as basic as a ball bearing faces the same decision.
Paying more for resilience only works if everyone else does it too. If not, you price yourself out of the market.
That is why supply chains keep coming back to efficiency, even after repeated disruptions.
For freight buyers, the takeaway is practical, the companies that get through disruptions best are not the ones with spare capacity sitting idle, but the ones that built flexibility into their supply chains ahead of time.
Multiple sourcing options and alternative routes help, and the key is being able to switch modes or shift volume quickly.
You cannot bolt that on in the middle of a crisis, it has to be there already.
Fuel risk is shifting from cost to availability
While the long-term approach does not change, short-term risks still matter, and right now fuel is one of the biggest ones.
It is easy to focus on rising bunker fuel costs, which will feed into rates and surcharges, but high fuel prices are not new and the industry has handled this before.
The bigger issue is availability.
A large share of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and with that flow disrupted, refueling hubs are drawing down existing supply with limited replenishment, meaning some ports are stable for now but watching the situation closely.
At a certain point, this stops being about price, because if fuel is not available, vessels cannot operate as planned.
We are starting to see the same pressure in air cargo, where the closure of Gulf airspace has reduced capacity and jet fuel shortages in parts of Asia are beginning to affect operations.
That changes how supply chains need to be managed, because while cost increases can be planned for, availability problems force real-time decisions about routing, timing, and carrier choice.
Right now, good supply chain management is not just about watching rates, it is about knowing where fuel is available and how secure that supply actually is.
A regional disruption, not a global crisis
Despite the headlines, it is important to keep this in perspective.
As Jensen points out, this is not a global container shipping crisis, but a serious regional disruption.
Only a small share of the global container fleet operates in and out of the Arabian Gulf, so even with diversions, the direct impact on global capacity is limited and not on the same level as the pandemic or the initial Red Sea disruption.
The bigger immediate impact has been on air cargo, where the closure of Gulf airspace removed a large chunk of Asia–Europe capacity almost overnight, tightening space and pushing rates up.
For ocean freight, things change if the situation escalates, because if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and the Red Sea is disrupted again, pressure starts to build across major global trade routes and a regional issue becomes something much bigger.
For now, the system is adjusting as cargo is rerouted and capacity is managed, and while it is under pressure, it is still working.
What freight buyers should focus on right now
Focus on what actually matters, not every headline. Here’s where a few priorities stand out:
- Build flexibility before you need it: Supplier diversification and routing options are long-term decisions, and they cannot be put in place once disruption has already started.
- Watch availability, not just cost: Fuel, capacity, and equipment can shift quickly, so what matters is what is actually available, not just what it costs on paper.
- Keep a sense of proportion: Not every disruption becomes a global crisis, and knowing when to act and when to hold steady is just as important as reacting quickly.
The long game still applies
One thing is clear, disruptions are not going away.
Efficiency will continue to drive how supply chains are built, resilience will remain part of the conversation but only in certain areas, and the companies that perform best will be the ones that prepared ahead of time rather than scrambling to react.
The fundamentals do not change, it just comes down to how well you apply them.
You can subscribe to the Freight Buyers’ Club podcast to follow future discussions like this.
If you are reassessing your supply chain strategy, reviewing routing options, or managing current disruptions, get in touch with a Dimerco specialist to discuss how these shifts may affect your planning.
